Back in April, Michael Totten reported from the Israeli/Lebanese border that Hezbollah was preparing an operation. Now they have crossed the border and kidnapped two soldiers and demanded the release of prisoners for their return as Hamas did earlier. The idea that the kidnapping was a copycat operation has received a lot of play today but I’m not so sure that I agree with that line of reasoning. To my mind the symmetry of these kidnappings raises the distinct and much more disturbing possibility that they were orchestrated not just by Hamas and Hezbollah but by their state sponsors in Syria and Iran as the opening moves in a spoiling attack aimed at pushing us out of the Middle East. The collective situation may just be poised to hit the proverbial fan.

Here’s the thumbnail version of how such a spoiling attack would play out. Essentially, Iran sets the stage to its liking, goads the US and/or Israel into action, stirs up a bunch of trouble and then relies on either international and/or domestic fecklessness to constrain the US and Israel while leveraging events to shore up domestic support and possibly duplicate their successes with Hezbollah in Shi’ite Iraq. Amir Taheri has been writing of the potential for this sort of Iranian attack for several years now. In a recent example entitled Iran Readying for Conflict with the US, Mr. Taheri outlined the steps that Iran was taking to prepare itself for war and followed that with speculation on how the scenario would play out:

The diplomatic tussle over Iran’s nuclear plans goes to the Security Council that will fail to take a decision thanks to Russian and Chinese vetoes.
The US, after much huffing and puffing launches air strikes against Iran’s nuclear installations. (Tehran loves Israel to also participate because that would give the Islamic Republic a better claim to be fighting on behalf of Islam as a whole.)
Iran retaliates by ordering the forces it controls inside Iraq to attack American and British troops. At the same time the Lebanese branch of the Hezbollah launches massive rocket attacks against Israel while Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, whose leaders spent the past month in Tehran meeting Khamenehi and his aides, organize a wave of suicide operations against Israel from Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Emphasis mine. Taheri has written several variations of this basic scenario and the current events don’t exactly follow the speculation of this particular article but nevertheless his speculation is alarmingly similar to the events playing out now.

While this sort of offensive may seem foolish and short-sighted from our American point of view it must be remembered that this is classic 4th generation warfare in the style of the Tet offensive. All military action will be precipitated on the political goal of convincing the US that the Middle East is a hopeless quagmire and that maintaining stability (much less promoting democracy) is an impossibly idealistic goal that cannot be achieved, an idea which they are counting on our sensationalist press and our Old European “allies” to reinforce at every opportunity. In short, Iran has the capability to indefinitely launch asymmetrical attacks against our interests in the ME. If they decide to do so, it will take nothing less than the will and resolve to wage total war with Iran with full knowledge and acceptance of the resulting consequences in order to maintain our presence and influence in the Middle East.

Now that Israel has sent the military into southern Lebanon Iran will have a much easier time painting any potential action (including, most importantly, their pursuit of nuclear weapons) with the pretense of legitimacy by framing the conflict as an Israeli/Arab one, hampered by imperious US meddling. Though vile nonsense at its heart one needs only to look at a recent Washington Post op-ed to see the ease with which Iran would be able to disseminate their propaganda.

It is my fervent hope that I am wrong but I cannot help but fear that the danse macabre has just begun.

Update: Ali Larijani (the Iranian defense minister) is currently in Syria to meet with the regime of boy Assad. The plot thickens.

Update the second: Strong words from Frederick Jones at the NSC:

“We also hold Syria and Iran _ which directly support Hezbollah _ responsible for this attack and for the ensuing violence,” Jones said.